1X Iran or draw
79.3 %
Iran
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 16, 2026 · 03:00
New Zealand
Model favorite Iran win 58.0 %
FavoriteIran
Confidence score59.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Iran win | 57.99 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.33 % |
| New Zealand win | 20.68 % |
Dominant scenario: 36.7-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
60.6 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 60.6 %
Under 2.5 39.4 %
58.4 % BTTS
Yes 58.4 %
No 41.6 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or New Zealand
42.0 %
12 Either team wins
78.7 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Iran 32.6 % · New Zealand 13.4 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Iran 73.7 % · New Zealand 26.3 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Iran 28.2 % · New Zealand 9.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Iran 34.8 % · New Zealand 7.8 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-1 9.89 %
- 1-1 9.83 %
- 2-0 8.82 %
- 1-0 8.77 %
- 3-1 6.64 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-1 (9.89%); next scenarios: 1-1 (9.83%), 2-0 (8.82%).
Elo context
Iran1849
New Zealand1674
Elo gap of 174 points in favour of Iran (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Iran vs New Zealand analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.