1X Germany or draw
75.9 %
Germany
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 29, 2026 · 22:30
Paraguay
Model favorite Germany win 53.5 %
FavoriteGermany
Confidence score55.0 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Germany win | 53.49 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 22.43 % |
| Paraguay win | 24.08 % |
Dominant scenario: 29.4-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
59.6 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 59.6 %
Under 2.5 40.4 %
59.3 % BTTS
Yes 59.3 %
No 40.7 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Paraguay
46.5 %
12 Either team wins
77.6 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Germany 30.1 % · Paraguay 15.1 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Germany 69.0 % · Paraguay 31.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Germany 25.6 % · Paraguay 10.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Germany 30.7 % · Paraguay 9.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 10.32 %
- 2-1 9.75 %
- 1-0 8.60 %
- 2-0 8.13 %
- 1-2 6.19 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (10.32%); next scenarios: 2-1 (9.75%), 1-0 (8.60%).
Elo context
Germany1937
Paraguay1804
Elo gap of 133 points in favour of Germany (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Germany vs Paraguay analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.