1X France or draw
57.3 %
France
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 14, 2026 · 21:00
Spain
Model favorite Spain win 42.7 %
FavoriteSpain
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| France win | 35.66 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.61 % |
| Spain win | 42.72 % |
Tight 7.1-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
71.0 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 71.0 %
Under 2.5 29.0 %
70.5 % BTTS
Yes 70.5 %
No 29.5 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Spain
64.3 %
12 Either team wins
78.4 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
France 14.6 % · Spain 17.4 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
France 45.5 % · Spain 54.5 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
France 12.1 % · Spain 14.9 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
France 18.2 % · Spain 23.5 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 8.55 %
- 1-2 8.22 %
- 2-1 7.47 %
- 2-2 7.19 %
- 1-3 5.28 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (8.55%); next scenarios: 1-2 (8.22%), 2-1 (7.47%).
Elo context
France2092
Spain2126
Elo gap of 33 points in favour of Spain (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the France vs Spain analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.