1X France or draw
78.6 %
France
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 16, 2026 · 21:00
Senegal
Model favorite France win 58.6 %
FavoriteFrance
Confidence score59.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| France win | 58.59 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.98 % |
| Senegal win | 21.44 % |
Dominant scenario: 37.2-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
68.3 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 68.3 %
Under 2.5 31.7 %
64.7 % BTTS
Yes 64.7 %
No 35.3 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Senegal
41.4 %
12 Either team wins
80.0 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
France 27.5 % · Senegal 10.8 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
France 73.2 % · Senegal 26.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
France 24.5 % · Senegal 7.8 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
France 36.7 % · Senegal 8.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-1 9.50 %
- 1-1 8.52 %
- 2-0 7.35 %
- 3-1 7.05 %
- 1-0 6.60 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-1 (9.50%); next scenarios: 1-1 (8.52%), 2-0 (7.35%).
Elo context
France2026
Senegal1842
Elo gap of 184 points in favour of France (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the France vs Senegal analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.