1X France or draw
73.8 %
France
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 9, 2026 · 22:00
Morocco
Model favorite France win 50.3 %
FavoriteFrance
Confidence score55.0 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| France win | 50.34 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.47 % |
| Morocco win | 26.19 % |
Clear 24.2-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
56.9 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 56.9 %
Under 2.5 43.1 %
58.0 % BTTS
Yes 58.0 %
No 42.0 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Morocco
49.7 %
12 Either team wins
76.5 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
France 30.0 % · Morocco 17.2 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
France 65.8 % · Morocco 34.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
France 24.8 % · Morocco 12.1 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
France 27.6 % · Morocco 10.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 10.95 %
- 2-1 9.62 %
- 1-0 9.08 %
- 2-0 7.98 %
- 1-2 6.60 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (10.95%); next scenarios: 2-1 (9.62%), 1-0 (9.08%).
Elo context
France2076
Morocco1970
Elo gap of 105 points in favour of France (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the France vs Morocco analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.