1X France or draw
91.8 %
France
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 22, 2026 · 23:00
Iraq
Model favorite France win 75.4 %
FavoriteFrance
Confidence score83.6 %
StabilityStable
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| France win | 75.37 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 16.42 % |
| Iraq win | 8.21 % |
Dominant scenario: 59.0-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
54.9 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 54.9 %
Under 2.5 45.1 %
59.4 % No BTTS
No 59.4 %
Yes 40.6 %
No clear goal trend: balanced markets.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Iraq
24.6 %
12 Either team wins
83.6 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
France 54.8 % · Iraq 10.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
France 90.2 % · Iraq 9.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
France 49.1 % · Iraq 4.7 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
France 51.5 % · Iraq 1.9 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-0 14.58 %
- 1-0 12.81 %
- 3-0 11.06 %
- 2-1 8.78 %
- 1-1 7.71 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-0 (14.58%); next scenarios: 1-0 (12.81%), 3-0 (11.06%).
Elo context
France2038
Iraq1670
Elo gap of 367 points in favour of France (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the France vs Iraq analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.