1X France or draw
93.4 %
France
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 22, 2026 · 23:00
Iraq
Model favorite France win 75.2 %
FavoriteFrance
Confidence score83.8 %
StabilityStable
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| France win | 75.18 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 18.25 % |
| Iraq win | 6.56 % |
Dominant scenario: 56.9-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
57.5 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 57.5 %
Over 2.5 42.5 %
71.3 % No BTTS
No 71.3 %
Yes 28.6 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Iraq
24.8 %
12 Either team wins
81.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
France 66.7 % · Iraq 13.9 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
France 92.0 % · Iraq 8.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
France 57.5 % · Iraq 4.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
France 48.6 % · Iraq 1.1 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 18.28 %
- 2-0 18.07 %
- 3-0 11.90 %
- 0-0 9.25 %
- 1-1 7.39 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (18.28%); next scenarios: 2-0 (18.07%), 3-0 (11.90%).
Elo context
France2041
Iraq1703
Elo gap of 338 points in favour of France (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the France vs Iraq analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.