1X France or draw
66.2 %
France
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 18, 2026 · 23:00
England
Model favorite France win 42.5 %
FavoriteFrance
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| France win | 42.54 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.68 % |
| England win | 33.78 % |
Tight 8.8-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
60.1 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 60.1 %
Under 2.5 39.9 %
62.0 % BTTS
Yes 62.0 %
No 38.0 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or England
57.5 %
12 Either team wins
76.3 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
France 23.4 % · England 19.1 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
France 55.7 % · England 44.3 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
France 18.9 % · England 14.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
France 21.9 % · England 15.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 10.74 %
- 2-1 8.89 %
- 1-2 7.80 %
- 1-0 7.39 %
- 0-1 6.48 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (10.74%); next scenarios: 2-1 (8.89%), 1-2 (7.80%).
Elo context
France2072
England2034
Elo gap of 38 points in favour of France (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the France vs England analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.