Quick answer
Who will win the 2026 World Cup?
According to the Foresportia simulation, Argentina, Spain, France, England and Belgium currently form the leading group of World Cup 2026 favorites. This probabilistic ranking combines team Elo strength, the schedule, the potential tournament path and each team's chances of reaching every round.
Quick view
Main favorites according to the Foresportia simulation
ArgentinaElo 2105
18.2%
title chance
SpainElo 2126
14.6%
title chance
FranceElo 2092
12.9%
title chance
Interactive ranking
All qualified teams
In the knockout stage, one defeat means elimination.
48 teams shown.
| Rank | Team | Profile | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | ArgentinaArgentine |
2105 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 30.5% | 18.2%±0.0 pt | Major favorite |
| #2 | SpainEspagne |
2126 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 23.9% | 14.6%±0.0 pt | Major favorite |
| #3 | FranceFrance |
2092 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 22.3% | 12.9%±0.0 pt | Major favorite |
| #4 |  EnglandAngleterre |
2046 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 17.4% | 9.4%±0.0 pt | Serious contender |
| #5 |  BelgiumEliminatedBelgique |
1965 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #6 |  MoroccoEliminatedMaroc |
1955 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #7 |  SwitzerlandEliminatedSuisse |
1932 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #8 |  NorwayEliminatedNorvège |
1913 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #9 |  BrazilEliminatedBrésil |
2010 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #10 |  ColombiaEliminatedColombie |
2009 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #11 |  PortugalEliminatedPortugal |
1992 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #12 |  MexicoEliminatedMexique |
1982 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #13 |  United StatesEliminatedÉtats-Unis |
1838 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #14 |  CanadaEliminatedCanada |
1838 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #15 |  ParaguayEliminatedParaguay |
1804 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #16 |  EgyptEliminatedÉgypte |
1797 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #17 |  NetherlandsEliminatedPays-Bas |
1970 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #18 |  GermanyEliminatedAllemagne |
1931 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #19 |  JapanEliminatedJapon |
1916 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #20 |  CroatiaEliminatedCroatie |
1882 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #21 |  AustraliaEliminatedAustralie |
1848 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #22 |  AustriaEliminatedAutriche |
1838 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #23 |  EcuadorEliminatedÉquateur |
1835 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #24 |  SenegalEliminatedSénégal |
1807 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #25 |  AlgeriaEliminatedAlgérie |
1807 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #26 |  Ivory CoastEliminatedCôte d'Ivoire |
1797 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #27 |  SwedenEliminatedSuède |
1780 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #28 |  DR CongoEliminatedRD Congo |
1724 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #29 |  South AfricaEliminatedAfrique du Sud |
1679 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #30 |  GhanaEliminatedGhana |
1654 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #31 |  Cape VerdeEliminatedCap-Vert |
1652 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #32 |  Bosnia and HerzegovinaEliminatedBosnie-Herzégovine |
1617 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #33 |  UruguayEliminatedUruguay |
1841 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #34 |  IranEliminatedIran |
1833 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #35 |  TurkeyEliminatedTurquie |
1817 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #36 |  South KoreaEliminatedCorée du Sud |
1775 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #37 |  ScotlandEliminatedÉcosse |
1735 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #38 |  Czech RepublicEliminatedRépublique tchèque |
1698 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #39 |  PanamaEliminatedPanama |
1693 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #40 |  UzbekistanEliminatedOuzbékistan |
1682 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #41 |  Saudi ArabiaEliminatedArabie saoudite |
1674 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #42 |  JordanEliminatedJordanie |
1655 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #43 |  IraqEliminatedIrak |
1645 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #44 |  New ZealandEliminatedNouvelle-Zélande |
1633 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #45 |  TunisiaEliminatedTunisie |
1629 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #46 |  HaitiEliminatedHaïti |
1599 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #47 |  CuraçaoEliminatedCuraçao |
1558 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
| #48 |  QatarEliminatedQatar |
1549 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Long shot |
#1ArgentinaElo 2105 ±0.0 pt
ArgentinaElo 2105 ±0.0 ptWinner18.2%
Final30.5%
Semi100.0%
Quarter100.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#2SpainElo 2126 ±0.0 pt
SpainElo 2126 ±0.0 ptWinner14.6%
Final23.9%
Semi100.0%
Quarter100.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#3FranceElo 2092 ±0.0 pt
FranceElo 2092 ±0.0 ptWinner12.9%
Final22.3%
Semi100.0%
Quarter100.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#4EnglandElo 2046 ±0.0 pt
EnglandElo 2046 ±0.0 ptWinner9.4%
Final17.4%
Semi100.0%
Quarter100.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#5BelgiumEliminatedElo 1965
BelgiumEliminatedElo 1965 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter100.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#6MoroccoEliminatedElo 1955
MoroccoEliminatedElo 1955 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter100.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#7SwitzerlandEliminatedElo 1932
SwitzerlandEliminatedElo 1932 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter100.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#8NorwayEliminatedElo 1913
NorwayEliminatedElo 1913 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter100.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#9BrazilEliminatedElo 2010
BrazilEliminatedElo 2010 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#10ColombiaEliminatedElo 2009
ColombiaEliminatedElo 2009 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#11PortugalEliminatedElo 1992
PortugalEliminatedElo 1992 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#12MexicoEliminatedElo 1982
MexicoEliminatedElo 1982 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#13United StatesEliminatedElo 1838
United StatesEliminatedElo 1838 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#14CanadaEliminatedElo 1838
CanadaEliminatedElo 1838 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#15ParaguayEliminatedElo 1804
ParaguayEliminatedElo 1804 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#16EgyptEliminatedElo 1797
EgyptEliminatedElo 1797 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R16100.0%
R32100.0%
#17NetherlandsEliminatedElo 1970
NetherlandsEliminatedElo 1970 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#18GermanyEliminatedElo 1931
GermanyEliminatedElo 1931 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#19JapanEliminatedElo 1916
JapanEliminatedElo 1916 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#20CroatiaEliminatedElo 1882
CroatiaEliminatedElo 1882 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#21AustraliaEliminatedElo 1848
AustraliaEliminatedElo 1848 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#22AustriaEliminatedElo 1838
AustriaEliminatedElo 1838 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#23EcuadorEliminatedElo 1835
EcuadorEliminatedElo 1835 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#24SenegalEliminatedElo 1807
SenegalEliminatedElo 1807 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#25AlgeriaEliminatedElo 1807
AlgeriaEliminatedElo 1807 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#26Ivory CoastEliminatedElo 1797
Ivory CoastEliminatedElo 1797 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#27SwedenEliminatedElo 1780
SwedenEliminatedElo 1780 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#28DR CongoEliminatedElo 1724
DR CongoEliminatedElo 1724 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#29South AfricaEliminatedElo 1679
South AfricaEliminatedElo 1679 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#30GhanaEliminatedElo 1654
GhanaEliminatedElo 1654 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#31Cape VerdeEliminatedElo 1652
Cape VerdeEliminatedElo 1652 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#32Bosnia and HerzegovinaEliminatedElo 1617
Bosnia and HerzegovinaEliminatedElo 1617 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R32100.0%
#33UruguayEliminatedElo 1841
UruguayEliminatedElo 1841 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#34IranEliminatedElo 1833
IranEliminatedElo 1833 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#35TurkeyEliminatedElo 1817
TurkeyEliminatedElo 1817 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#36South KoreaEliminatedElo 1775
South KoreaEliminatedElo 1775 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#37ScotlandEliminatedElo 1735
ScotlandEliminatedElo 1735 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#38Czech RepublicEliminatedElo 1698
Czech RepublicEliminatedElo 1698 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#39PanamaEliminatedElo 1693
PanamaEliminatedElo 1693 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#40UzbekistanEliminatedElo 1682
UzbekistanEliminatedElo 1682 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#41Saudi ArabiaEliminatedElo 1674
Saudi ArabiaEliminatedElo 1674 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#42JordanEliminatedElo 1655
JordanEliminatedElo 1655 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#43IraqEliminatedElo 1645
IraqEliminatedElo 1645 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#44New ZealandEliminatedElo 1633
New ZealandEliminatedElo 1633 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#45TunisiaEliminatedElo 1629
TunisiaEliminatedElo 1629 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#46HaitiEliminatedElo 1599
HaitiEliminatedElo 1599 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#47CuraçaoEliminatedElo 1558
CuraçaoEliminatedElo 1558 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
#48QatarEliminatedElo 1549
QatarEliminatedElo 1549 Winner0.0%
Final0.0%
Semi0.0%
Quarter0.0%
R160.0%
R320.0%
Foresportia API
Need these simulations in JSON?
Foresportia API lets you integrate football predictions, round probabilities, market probabilities and confidence signals into your bots, dashboards or analytics tools.
Reading the ranking
How to interpret the probabilities
Winner
Estimated probability of winning the World Cup 2026 in the Foresportia simulation.
Final, semi-finals, quarter-finals
Chances to reach each stage, useful to separate title favorites from teams that are simply strong enough to go deep.
Elo
Relative national-team strength rating used as one of the signals in the simulation.
Foresportia probabilities are statistical estimates. They are not bookmaker odds and do not guarantee any result. This version uses the Foresportia contextual scenario: official FIFA 2026 bracket, host bonus and defending-champion adjustment.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the 2026 World Cup?
Argentina is currently the favorite with a 18.2% title chance according to the Foresportia simulation. This is a model estimate, not a certainty.
How does Foresportia calculate World Cup favorites?
The ranking combines a tournament simulation, national-team Elo strength, the schedule, the FIFA 2026 bracket and each team's probability of reaching every round.
What is the difference between an Elo favorite and a title favorite?
Elo measures relative team strength. Title chance also accounts for the tournament path, possible opponents and the probability of progressing through each stage.
Are the title probabilities updated?
Yes. The page is regenerated when the scenario and simulation data are refreshed, so the favorites ranking can move over time.
Is France a favorite for the 2026 World Cup?
France ranks #3 in this scenario with a 12.9% title chance. It can be a serious contender without automatically being the favorite.