Who is the favorite for the 2026 World Cup?

Spain is the favorite with a 14.6% title chance according to the Foresportia simulation (contextual scenario, official FIFA 2026 bracket).

How are these probabilities computed?

They come from a Monte-Carlo simulation of the tournament (national_poisson_v2_calibrated engine) using national-team Elo, the official FIFA 2026 bracket and the Annex C allocation of the best third-placed teams.

Are these probabilities betting odds?

No. They are Foresportia statistical estimates, not bookmaker odds, and they do not guarantee any result.

World Cup 2026 favorites: ranking, Elo and title chances

Teams tracked48qualified teams

Current favoriteSpain14.6% title chance

Last updateSimulation intégréeForesportia data

Quick view

Main favorites according to the Foresportia simulation

Compare all 48 teams

SpainElo 2090 14.6% title chance

ArgentinaElo 2047 11.7% title chance

FranceElo 2041 11.2% title chance

Interactive ranking

All qualified teams

Search for a team or sort the table by title probability, final, semi-final, quarter-final, round of 16, round of 32 or Elo.

48 teams shown.

World Cup 2026 favorites: ranking, Elo and title chances | Foresportia
Rank	Team								Profile
#1	SpainEspagne	2090	98.4%	68.5%	47.1%	33.9%	22.5%	14.6%	Major favorite
#2	ArgentinaArgentine	2047	96.2%	62.6%	45.6%	30.5%	19.4%	11.7%	Major favorite
#3	FranceFrance	2041	95.1%	68.9%	46.4%	30.4%	18.4%	11.2%	Major favorite
#4	BrazilBrésil	1990	95.2%	59.3%	37.7%	22.5%	12.4%	6.7%	Serious contender
#5	EnglandAngleterre	1974	93.7%	58.7%	34.9%	20.1%	11.1%	5.7%	Serious contender
#6	ColombiaColombie	1970	92.8%	58.0%	34.0%	19.3%	10.6%	5.4%	Serious contender
#7	PortugalPortugal	1967	91.9%	56.9%	32.8%	18.4%	10.1%	5.2%	Serious contender
#8	NetherlandsPays-Bas	1951	88.1%	49.3%	29.4%	15.8%	8.0%	3.9%	Dangerous outsider
#9	GermanyAllemagne	1934	92.8%	57.0%	29.1%	15.7%	7.7%	3.6%	Dangerous outsider
#10	MexicoMexique	1914	93.4%	59.2%	30.6%	15.0%	7.1%	3.2%	Dangerous outsider
#11	JapanJapon	1920	85.8%	45.1%	25.7%	13.0%	6.2%	2.8%	Dangerous outsider
#12	CroatiaCroatie	1910	87.5%	47.1%	24.1%	12.3%	5.9%	2.7%	Dangerous outsider
#13	MoroccoMaroc	1910	89.4%	47.2%	26.5%	13.0%	6.0%	2.7%	Dangerous outsider
#14	EcuadorÉquateur	1907	93.5%	56.2%	26.8%	13.6%	6.2%	2.6%	Dangerous outsider
#15	UruguayUruguay	1898	91.4%	42.2%	23.3%	11.7%	5.4%	2.3%	Dangerous outsider
#16	BelgiumBelgique	1890	86.3%	49.8%	25.5%	11.2%	5.0%	2.2%	Dangerous outsider
#17	SwitzerlandSuisse	1868	90.7%	51.0%	23.4%	10.1%	4.4%	1.8%	Dangerous outsider
#18	CanadaCanada	1860	92.4%	52.1%	23.0%	9.5%	3.9%	1.5%	Outsider
#19	SenegalSénégal	1855	72.9%	37.7%	17.5%	7.5%	3.0%	1.2%	Outsider
#20	TürkiyeTurquie	1845	72.2%	37.9%	17.1%	7.0%	2.9%	1.1%	Outsider
#21	IranIran	1840	80.2%	41.5%	18.2%	7.1%	2.7%	1.0%	Outsider
#22	NorwayNorvège	1834	68.3%	33.6%	15.0%	6.2%	2.4%	0.9%	Outsider
#23	USAÉtats-Unis	1835	70.2%	35.7%	15.7%	6.1%	2.4%	0.9%	Outsider
#24	AustraliaAustralie	1839	70.8%	36.2%	15.8%	6.1%	2.4%	0.9%	Outsider
#25	South KoreaCorée du Sud	1819	80.4%	40.8%	16.7%	6.5%	2.4%	0.8%	Outsider
#26	AustriaAutriche	1824	66.4%	25.3%	11.6%	4.9%	1.9%	0.6%	Outsider
#27	AlgeriaAlgérie	1817	64.1%	23.8%	10.7%	4.2%	1.5%	0.5%	Outsider
#28	ParaguayParaguay	1803	61.3%	28.1%	10.9%	3.8%	1.4%	0.4%	Outsider
#29	PanamaPanama	1776	64.3%	23.3%	8.7%	3.1%	1.0%	0.3%	Long shot
#30	UzbekistanOuzbékistan	1776	52.7%	19.1%	6.8%	2.3%	0.7%	0.2%	Long shot
#31	Czech RepublicRépublique tchèque	1734	61.2%	24.6%	8.2%	2.5%	0.7%	0.2%	Long shot
#32	SwedenSuède	1747	52.2%	18.2%	6.7%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%	Long shot
#33	Ivory CoastCôte d'Ivoire	1749	65.4%	25.0%	7.7%	2.3%	0.6%	0.2%	Long shot
#34	EgyptÉgypte	1749	57.5%	21.6%	6.9%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%	Long shot
#35	ScotlandÉcosse	1735	51.9%	17.4%	6.0%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%	Long shot
#36	JordanJordanie	1722	40.5%	11.8%	4.2%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%	Long shot
#37	New ZealandNouvelle-Zélande	1696	46.8%	16.2%	4.9%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%	Long shot
#38	TunisiaTunisie	1728	44.2%	13.9%	4.6%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%	Long shot
#39	Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnie-Herzégovine	1615	44.9%	12.9%	3.2%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	Long shot
#40	IraqIrak	1703	30.1%	9.6%	2.8%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	Long shot
#41	QatarQatar	1587	38.9%	10.3%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	Long shot
#42	Congo DRRD Congo	1685	24.8%	6.4%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	Long shot
#43	HaitiHaïti	1635	29.5%	7.9%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	Long shot
#44	South AfricaAfrique du Sud	1637	33.6%	9.8%	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	Long shot
#45	Saudi ArabiaArabie saoudite	1656	35.6%	8.8%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	Long shot
#46	GhanaGhana	1606	23.0%	4.6%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	Long shot
#47	Cape Verde IslandsCap-Vert	1620	25.6%	5.5%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	Long shot
#48	CuraçaoCuraçao	1548	15.7%	3.3%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	Long shot

SpainElo 2090

Winner14.6%

Final22.5%

Semi33.9%

Quarter47.1%

R1668.5%

R3298.4%

Major favorite

ArgentinaElo 2047

Winner11.7%

Final19.4%

Semi30.5%

Quarter45.6%

R1662.6%

R3296.2%

Major favorite

FranceElo 2041

Winner11.2%

Final18.4%

Semi30.4%

Quarter46.4%

R1668.9%

R3295.1%

Major favorite

BrazilElo 1990

Winner6.7%

Final12.4%

Semi22.5%

Quarter37.7%

R1659.3%

R3295.2%

Serious contender

EnglandElo 1974

Winner5.7%

Final11.1%

Semi20.1%

Quarter34.9%

R1658.7%

R3293.7%

Serious contender

ColombiaElo 1970

Winner5.4%

Final10.6%

Semi19.3%

Quarter34.0%

R1658.0%

R3292.8%

Serious contender

PortugalElo 1967

Winner5.2%

Final10.1%

Semi18.4%

Quarter32.8%

R1656.9%

R3291.9%

Serious contender

NetherlandsElo 1951

Winner3.9%

Final8.0%

Semi15.8%

Quarter29.4%

R1649.3%

R3288.1%

Dangerous outsider

GermanyElo 1934

Winner3.6%

Final7.7%

Semi15.7%

Quarter29.1%

R1657.0%

R3292.8%

Dangerous outsider

#10

MexicoElo 1914

Winner3.2%

Final7.1%

Semi15.0%

Quarter30.6%

R1659.2%

R3293.4%

Dangerous outsider

#11

JapanElo 1920

Winner2.8%

Final6.2%

Semi13.0%

Quarter25.7%

R1645.1%

R3285.8%

Dangerous outsider

#12

CroatiaElo 1910

Winner2.7%

Final5.9%

Semi12.3%

Quarter24.1%

R1647.1%

R3287.5%

Dangerous outsider

#13

MoroccoElo 1910

Winner2.7%

Final6.0%

Semi13.0%

Quarter26.5%

R1647.2%

R3289.4%

Dangerous outsider

#14

EcuadorElo 1907

Winner2.6%

Final6.2%

Semi13.6%

Quarter26.8%

R1656.2%

R3293.5%

Dangerous outsider

#15

UruguayElo 1898

Winner2.3%

Final5.4%

Semi11.7%

Quarter23.3%

R1642.2%

R3291.4%

Dangerous outsider

#16

BelgiumElo 1890

Winner2.2%

Final5.0%

Semi11.2%

Quarter25.5%

R1649.8%

R3286.3%

Dangerous outsider

#17

SwitzerlandElo 1868

Winner1.8%

Final4.4%

Semi10.1%

Quarter23.4%

R1651.0%

R3290.7%

Dangerous outsider

#18

CanadaElo 1860

Winner1.5%

Final3.9%

Semi9.5%

Quarter23.0%

R1652.1%

R3292.4%

Outsider

#19

SenegalElo 1855

Winner1.2%

Final3.0%

Semi7.5%

Quarter17.5%

R1637.7%

R3272.9%

Outsider

#20

TürkiyeElo 1845

Winner1.1%

Final2.9%

Semi7.0%

Quarter17.1%

R1637.9%

R3272.2%

Outsider

#21

IranElo 1840

Winner1.0%

Final2.7%

Semi7.1%

Quarter18.2%

R1641.5%

R3280.2%

Outsider

#22

NorwayElo 1834

Winner0.9%

Final2.4%

Semi6.2%

Quarter15.0%

R1633.6%

R3268.3%

Outsider

#23

USAElo 1835

Winner0.9%

Final2.4%

Semi6.1%

Quarter15.7%

R1635.7%

R3270.2%

Outsider

#24

AustraliaElo 1839

Winner0.9%

Final2.4%

Semi6.1%

Quarter15.8%

R1636.2%

R3270.8%

Outsider

#25

South KoreaElo 1819

Winner0.8%

Final2.4%

Semi6.5%

Quarter16.7%

R1640.8%

R3280.4%

Outsider

#26

AustriaElo 1824

Winner0.6%

Final1.9%

Semi4.9%

Quarter11.6%

R1625.3%

R3266.4%

Outsider

#27

AlgeriaElo 1817

Winner0.5%

Final1.5%

Semi4.2%

Quarter10.7%

R1623.8%

R3264.1%

Outsider

#28

ParaguayElo 1803

Winner0.4%

Final1.4%

Semi3.8%

Quarter10.9%

R1628.1%

R3261.3%

Outsider

#29

PanamaElo 1776

Winner0.3%

Final1.0%

Semi3.1%

Quarter8.7%

R1623.3%

R3264.3%

Long shot

#30

UzbekistanElo 1776

Winner0.2%

Final0.7%

Semi2.3%

Quarter6.8%

R1619.1%

R3252.7%

Long shot

#31

Czech RepublicElo 1734

Winner0.2%

Final0.7%

Semi2.5%

Quarter8.2%

R1624.6%

R3261.2%

Long shot

#32

SwedenElo 1747

Winner0.2%

Final0.7%

Semi2.2%

Quarter6.7%

R1618.2%

R3252.2%

Long shot

#33

Ivory CoastElo 1749

Winner0.2%

Final0.6%

Semi2.3%

Quarter7.7%

R1625.0%

R3265.4%

Long shot

#34

EgyptElo 1749

Winner0.1%

Final0.6%

Semi2.0%

Quarter6.9%

R1621.6%

R3257.5%

Long shot

#35

ScotlandElo 1735

Winner0.1%

Final0.5%

Semi1.8%

Quarter6.0%

R1617.4%

R3251.9%

Long shot

#36

JordanElo 1722

Winner0.1%

Final0.4%

Semi1.3%

Quarter4.2%

R1611.8%

R3240.5%

Long shot

#37

New ZealandElo 1696

Winner0.1%

Final0.4%

Semi1.3%

Quarter4.9%

R1616.2%

R3246.8%

Long shot

#38

TunisiaElo 1728

Winner0.1%

Final0.3%

Semi1.3%

Quarter4.6%

R1613.9%

R3244.2%

Long shot

#39

Bosnia & HerzegovinaElo 1615

Winner0.0%

Final0.1%

Semi0.7%

Quarter3.2%

R1612.9%

R3244.9%

Long shot

#40

IraqElo 1703

Winner0.0%

Final0.2%

Semi0.7%

Quarter2.8%

R169.6%

R3230.1%

Long shot

#41

QatarElo 1587

Winner0.0%

Final0.1%

Semi0.5%

Quarter2.5%

R1610.3%

R3238.9%

Long shot

#42

Congo DRElo 1685

Winner0.0%

Final0.1%

Semi0.4%

Quarter1.7%

R166.4%

R3224.8%

Long shot

#43

HaitiElo 1635

Winner0.0%

Final0.1%

Semi0.5%

Quarter2.2%

R167.9%

R3229.5%

Long shot

#44

South AfricaElo 1637

Winner0.0%

Final0.1%

Semi0.5%

Quarter2.3%

R169.8%

R3233.6%

Long shot

#45

Saudi ArabiaElo 1656

Winner0.0%

Final0.1%

Semi0.5%

Quarter2.5%

R168.8%

R3235.6%

Long shot

#46

GhanaElo 1606

Winner0.0%

Final0.0%

Semi0.2%

Quarter1.1%

R164.6%

R3223.0%

Long shot

#47

Cape Verde IslandsElo 1620

Winner0.0%

Final0.0%

Semi0.3%

Quarter1.4%

R165.5%

R3225.6%

Long shot

#48

CuraçaoElo 1548

Winner0.0%

Final0.0%

Semi0.1%

Quarter0.6%

R163.3%

R3215.7%

Long shot

Reading the ranking

How to interpret the probabilities

Winner

Estimated probability of winning the World Cup 2026 in the Foresportia simulation.

Final, semi-finals, quarter-finals

Chances to reach each stage, useful to separate title favorites from teams that are simply strong enough to go deep.

Elo

Relative national-team strength rating used as one of the signals in the simulation.

Foresportia probabilities are statistical estimates. They are not bookmaker odds and do not guarantee any result. This version uses the Foresportia contextual scenario: official FIFA 2026 bracket, host bonus and defending-champion adjustment.