1X England or draw
71.6 %
England
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 17, 2026 · 22:00
Croatia
Model favorite England win 47.3 %
FavoriteEngland
Confidence score48.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| England win | 47.33 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.29 % |
| Croatia win | 28.38 % |
Clear 18.9-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
54.8 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 54.8 %
Under 2.5 45.2 %
57.0 % BTTS
Yes 57.0 %
No 43.0 %
Reading: both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Croatia
52.7 %
12 Either team wins
75.7 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
England 29.4 % · Croatia 19.2 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
England 62.5 % · Croatia 37.5 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
England 23.8 % · Croatia 13.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
England 24.8 % · Croatia 11.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 11.41 %
- 2-1 9.41 %
- 1-0 9.33 %
- 2-0 7.69 %
- 1-2 6.98 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (11.41%); next scenarios: 2-1 (9.41%), 1-0 (9.33%).
Elo context
England1981
Croatia1900
Elo gap of 81 points in favour of England (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the England vs Croatia analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.