1X England or draw
50.7 %
England
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 15, 2026 · 21:00
Argentina
Model favorite Argentina win 49.3 %
FavoriteArgentina
Confidence score48.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| England win | 25.28 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.43 % |
| Argentina win | 49.29 % |
Clear 23.9-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
52.2 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 52.2 %
Over 2.5 47.8 %
50.8 % BTTS
Yes 50.8 %
No 49.2 %
No clear goal trend: balanced markets.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Argentina
74.7 %
12 Either team wins
74.6 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
England 21.2 % · Argentina 35.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
England 33.9 % · Argentina 66.1 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
England 13.7 % · Argentina 28.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
England 9.3 % · Argentina 25.4 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 12.09 %
- 0-1 11.69 %
- 1-2 9.38 %
- 0-2 9.07 %
- 1-0 7.79 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (12.09%); next scenarios: 0-1 (11.69%), 1-2 (9.38%).
Elo context
England2046
Argentina2145
Elo gap of 98 points in favour of Argentina (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the England vs Argentina analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.