1X Egypt or draw
59.4 %
Egypt
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 27, 2026 · 05:00
Iran
Model favorite Iran win 40.6 %
FavoriteIran
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Egypt win | 29.44 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.92 % |
| Iran win | 40.65 % |
Tight 10.7-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
65.6 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 65.6 %
Over 2.5 34.4 %
58.7 % No BTTS
No 58.7 %
Yes 41.3 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Iran
70.6 %
12 Either team wins
70.1 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Egypt 31.8 % · Iran 39.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Egypt 42.0 % · Iran 58.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Egypt 19.2 % · Iran 26.9 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Egypt 10.4 % · Iran 17.1 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 14.38 %
- 1-1 13.37 %
- 0-0 12.54 %
- 1-0 11.65 %
- 0-2 8.25 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (14.38%); next scenarios: 1-1 (13.37%), 0-0 (12.54%).
Elo context
Egypt1795
Iran1837
Elo gap of 41 points in favour of Iran (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Egypt vs Iran analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.