1X Egypt or draw
52.4 %
Egypt
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 27, 2026 · 05:00
Iran
Model favorite Iran win 47.6 %
FavoriteIran
Confidence score48.5 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Egypt win | 22.91 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.48 % |
| Iran win | 47.61 % |
Clear 18.1-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
67.2 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 67.2 %
Over 2.5 32.8 %
61.7 % No BTTS
No 61.7 %
Yes 38.3 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Iran
77.1 %
12 Either team wins
70.5 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Egypt 28.7 % · Iran 46.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Egypt 32.5 % · Iran 67.5 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Egypt 15.4 % · Iran 33.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Egypt 6.9 % · Iran 21.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 16.59 %
- 0-0 13.29 %
- 1-1 12.77 %
- 0-2 10.36 %
- 1-0 10.23 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (16.59%); next scenarios: 0-0 (13.29%), 1-1 (12.77%).
Elo context
Egypt1758
Iran1849
Elo gap of 91 points in favour of Iran (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Egypt vs Iran analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.