1X Ecuador or draw
61.4 %
Ecuador
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 25, 2026 · 22:00
Germany
Model favorite Germany win 38.6 %
FavoriteGermany
Confidence score37.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Ecuador win | 31.22 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 30.20 % |
| Germany win | 38.59 % |
Tight 7.4-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
66.0 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 66.0 %
Over 2.5 34.0 %
58.8 % No BTTS
No 58.8 %
Yes 41.2 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Germany
68.8 %
12 Either team wins
69.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Ecuador 33.2 % · Germany 38.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Ecuador 44.7 % · Germany 55.3 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Ecuador 20.5 % · Germany 25.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Ecuador 11.3 % · Germany 15.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 14.03 %
- 1-1 13.46 %
- 0-0 12.74 %
- 1-0 12.22 %
- 0-2 7.73 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (14.03%); next scenarios: 1-1 (13.46%), 0-0 (12.74%).
Elo context
Ecuador1910
Germany1937
Elo gap of 27 points in favour of Germany (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Ecuador vs Germany analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.