1X Ecuador or draw
48.1 %
Ecuador
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 25, 2026 · 22:00
Germany👑
Model favorite Germany win 51.9 %
FavoriteGermany
Confidence score55.0 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Ecuador win | 20.01 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 28.13 % |
| Germany win | 51.86 % |
Clear 23.7-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Germany has already qualified. The model still reflects the estimated strength of both teams, but lineup choices, intensity or game management may differ from a normal high-stakes match.
Goal trends
65.5 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 65.5 %
Over 2.5 34.5 %
61.7 % No BTTS
No 61.7 %
Yes 38.3 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Germany
80.0 %
12 Either team wins
71.9 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Ecuador 25.8 % · Germany 48.4 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Ecuador 27.8 % · Germany 72.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Ecuador 13.3 % · Germany 35.9 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Ecuador 5.7 % · Germany 25.1 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 16.93 %
- 0-0 12.50 %
- 1-1 12.27 %
- 0-2 11.47 %
- 1-0 9.06 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (16.93%); next scenarios: 0-0 (12.50%), 1-1 (12.27%).
Elo context
Ecuador1840
Germany1961
Elo gap of 121 points in favour of Germany (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Ecuador vs Germany analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.