1X Ecuador or draw
96.9 %
Ecuador
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 21, 2026 · 02:00
Curaçao
Model favorite Ecuador win 79.0 %
FavoriteEcuador
Confidence score83.7 %
StabilityStable
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Ecuador win | 79.03 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 17.83 % |
| Curaçao win | 3.14 % |
Dominant scenario: 61.2-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
66.4 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 66.4 %
Over 2.5 33.6 %
85.6 % No BTTS
No 85.6 %
Yes 14.4 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Curaçao
21.0 %
12 Either team wins
82.2 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Ecuador 82.9 % · Curaçao 15.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Ecuador 96.2 % · Curaçao 3.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Ecuador 70.0 % · Curaçao 2.7 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Ecuador 50.6 % · Curaçao 0.3 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 24.01 %
- 2-0 22.33 %
- 3-0 13.84 %
- 0-0 12.92 %
- 4-0 6.43 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (24.01%); next scenarios: 2-0 (22.33%), 3-0 (13.84%).
Elo context
Ecuador1910
Curaçao1543
Elo gap of 367 points in favour of Ecuador (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Ecuador vs Curaçao analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.