1X Ecuador or draw
95.2 %
Ecuador
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 21, 2026 · 02:00
Curaçao
Model favorite Ecuador win 75.5 %
FavoriteEcuador
Confidence score83.7 %
StabilityStable
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Ecuador win | 75.50 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.69 % |
| Curaçao win | 4.81 % |
Dominant scenario: 55.8-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
66.4 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 66.4 %
Over 2.5 33.6 %
80.8 % No BTTS
No 80.8 %
Yes 19.2 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Curaçao
24.5 %
12 Either team wins
80.3 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Ecuador 76.9 % · Curaçao 16.8 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Ecuador 94.0 % · Curaçao 6.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Ecuador 64.0 % · Curaçao 3.9 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Ecuador 46.6 % · Curaçao 0.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 23.04 %
- 2-0 20.57 %
- 0-0 12.90 %
- 3-0 12.24 %
- 1-1 6.04 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (23.04%); next scenarios: 2-0 (20.57%), 0-0 (12.90%).
Elo context
Ecuador1866
Curaçao1541
Elo gap of 324 points in favour of Ecuador (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Ecuador vs Curaçao analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.