1X Czech Republic or draw
37.0 %
Czech Republic
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 25, 2026 · 03:00
Mexico👑
Model favorite Mexico win 63.0 %
FavoriteMexico
Confidence score65.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Czech Republic win | 12.41 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.62 % |
| Mexico win | 62.98 % |
Dominant scenario: 38.4-point lead over the next.
Mexico has already qualified. The model still reflects the estimated strength of both teams, but lineup choices, intensity or game management may differ from a normal high-stakes match.
Goal trends
64.4 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 64.4 %
Over 2.5 35.6 %
66.8 % No BTTS
No 66.8 %
Yes 33.2 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Mexico
87.6 %
12 Either team wins
75.4 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Czech Republic 20.6 % · Mexico 58.2 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Czech Republic 16.5 % · Mexico 83.5 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Czech Republic 8.6 % · Mexico 46.3 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Czech Republic 2.8 % · Mexico 34.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 18.94 %
- 0-2 14.99 %
- 0-0 11.97 %
- 1-1 10.24 %
- 1-2 8.10 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (18.94%); next scenarios: 0-2 (14.99%), 0-0 (11.97%).
Elo context
Czech Republic1719
Mexico1926
Elo gap of 207 points in favour of Mexico (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Czech Republic vs Mexico analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.