1X Croatia or draw
84.7 %
Croatia
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 27, 2026 · 23:00
Ghana
Model favorite Croatia win 64.1 %
FavoriteCroatia
Confidence score65.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Croatia win | 64.10 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.59 % |
| Ghana win | 15.31 % |
Dominant scenario: 43.5-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
55.0 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 55.0 %
Under 2.5 45.0 %
50.3 % BTTS
Yes 50.3 %
No 49.7 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Ghana
35.9 %
12 Either team wins
79.4 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Croatia 42.0 % · Ghana 13.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Croatia 80.7 % · Ghana 19.3 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Croatia 36.4 % · Ghana 7.7 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Croatia 39.6 % · Ghana 4.8 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-0 11.37 %
- 1-0 11.28 %
- 2-1 9.86 %
- 1-1 9.79 %
- 3-0 7.64 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-0 (11.37%); next scenarios: 1-0 (11.28%), 2-1 (9.86%).
Elo context
Croatia1902
Ghana1671
Elo gap of 231 points in favour of Croatia (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Croatia vs Ghana analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.