1X Colombia or draw
62.3 %
Colombia
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 28, 2026 · 01:30
Portugal
Model favorite Colombia win 39.0 %
FavoriteColombia
Confidence score37.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Colombia win | 39.05 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.27 % |
| Portugal win | 37.68 % |
Three scenarios very close: undecided match according to the model.
Goal trends
62.8 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 62.8 %
Under 2.5 37.2 %
64.3 % BTTS
Yes 64.3 %
No 35.7 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Portugal
61.0 %
12 Either team wins
76.7 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Colombia 20.1 % · Portugal 19.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Colombia 50.9 % · Portugal 49.1 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Colombia 16.2 % · Portugal 15.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Colombia 19.6 % · Portugal 18.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 10.28 %
- 2-1 8.41 %
- 1-2 8.24 %
- 2-2 6.74 %
- 1-0 6.41 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (10.28%); next scenarios: 2-1 (8.41%), 1-2 (8.24%).
Elo context
Colombia1973
Portugal1967
Very small Elo gap: teams rated close to each other.
Match FAQ
How should I read the Colombia vs Portugal analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.