1X Colombia or draw
64.4 %
Colombia👑
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 28, 2026 · 01:30
Portugal
Model favorite Colombia win 42.4 %
FavoriteColombia
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Colombia win | 42.44 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.93 % |
| Portugal win | 35.63 % |
Tight 6.8-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Colombia has already qualified. The model still reflects the estimated strength of both teams, but lineup choices, intensity or game management may differ from a normal high-stakes match.
Goal trends
69.4 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 69.4 %
Under 2.5 30.6 %
69.3 % BTTS
Yes 69.3 %
No 30.7 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Portugal
57.6 %
12 Either team wins
78.1 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Colombia 18.2 % · Portugal 15.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Colombia 54.4 % · Portugal 45.6 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Colombia 15.4 % · Portugal 12.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Colombia 23.0 % · Portugal 17.9 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 8.91 %
- 2-1 8.35 %
- 1-2 7.60 %
- 2-2 7.12 %
- 1-0 5.23 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (8.91%); next scenarios: 2-1 (8.35%), 1-2 (7.60%).
Elo context
Colombia2007
Portugal1975
Elo gap of 31 points in favour of Colombia (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Colombia vs Portugal analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.