1X Colombia or draw
91.2 %
Colombia
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 4, 2026 · 03:30
Ghana
Model favorite Colombia win 73.8 %
FavoriteColombia
Confidence score77.9 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Colombia win | 73.84 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 17.39 % |
| Ghana win | 8.77 % |
Dominant scenario: 56.5-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
52.5 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 52.5 %
Under 2.5 47.5 %
60.1 % No BTTS
No 60.1 %
Yes 39.9 %
Reading: at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Ghana
26.2 %
12 Either team wins
82.6 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Colombia 55.0 % · Ghana 11.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Colombia 89.4 % · Ghana 10.6 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Colombia 48.8 % · Ghana 5.1 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Colombia 49.3 % · Ghana 2.0 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-0 14.78 %
- 1-0 13.57 %
- 3-0 10.74 %
- 2-1 8.84 %
- 1-1 8.11 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-0 (14.78%); next scenarios: 1-0 (13.57%), 3-0 (10.74%).
Elo context
Colombia2004
Ghana1663
Elo gap of 340 points in favour of Colombia (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Colombia vs Ghana analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.