1X Colombia or draw
92.3 %
Colombia
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 24, 2026 · 04:00
Congo DR
Model favorite Colombia win 71.2 %
FavoriteColombia
Confidence score77.7 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Colombia win | 71.21 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.05 % |
| Congo DR win | 7.73 % |
Dominant scenario: 50.2-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
63.0 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 63.0 %
Over 2.5 37.0 %
72.5 % No BTTS
No 72.5 %
Yes 27.5 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Congo DR
28.8 %
12 Either team wins
79.0 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Colombia 66.9 % · Congo DR 17.0 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Colombia 90.2 % · Congo DR 9.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Colombia 55.5 % · Congo DR 5.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Colombia 43.0 % · Congo DR 1.3 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 20.16 %
- 2-0 17.85 %
- 0-0 11.38 %
- 3-0 10.54 %
- 1-1 8.11 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (20.16%); next scenarios: 2-0 (17.85%), 0-0 (11.38%).
Elo context
Colombia1973
Congo DR1689
Elo gap of 284 points in favour of Colombia (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Colombia vs Congo DR analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.