1X Colombia or draw
92.0 %
Colombia
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 24, 2026 · 04:00
DR Congo
Model favorite Colombia win 72.3 %
FavoriteColombia
Confidence score77.8 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Colombia win | 72.28 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.67 % |
| DR Congo win | 8.05 % |
Dominant scenario: 52.6-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
58.1 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 58.1 %
Over 2.5 41.9 %
68.7 % No BTTS
No 68.7 %
Yes 31.3 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or DR Congo
27.7 %
12 Either team wins
80.3 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Colombia 63.2 % · DR Congo 15.0 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Colombia 90.0 % · DR Congo 10.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Colombia 53.8 % · DR Congo 5.5 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Colombia 45.3 % · DR Congo 1.5 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 17.96 %
- 2-0 17.07 %
- 3-0 10.81 %
- 0-0 9.45 %
- 1-1 8.24 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (17.96%); next scenarios: 2-0 (17.07%), 3-0 (10.81%).
Elo context
Colombia1996
DR Congo1694
Elo gap of 302 points in favour of Colombia (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Colombia vs DR Congo analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.