1X Canada or draw
86.9 %
Canada
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 19, 2026 · 00:00
Qatar
Model favorite Canada win 65.8 %
FavoriteCanada
Confidence score72.6 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Canada win | 65.79 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.15 % |
| Qatar win | 13.06 % |
Dominant scenario: 44.6-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
51.8 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 51.8 %
Over 2.5 48.2 %
57.1 % No BTTS
No 57.1 %
Yes 42.9 %
No clear goal trend: balanced markets.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Qatar
34.2 %
12 Either team wins
78.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Canada 49.5 % · Qatar 15.0 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Canada 83.4 % · Qatar 16.6 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Canada 42.1 % · Qatar 7.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Canada 40.0 % · Qatar 3.5 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 14.08 %
- 2-0 13.37 %
- 1-1 9.90 %
- 2-1 9.40 %
- 3-0 8.46 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (14.08%); next scenarios: 2-0 (13.37%), 1-1 (9.90%).
Elo context
Canada1824
Qatar1582
Elo gap of 242 points in favour of Canada (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Canada vs Qatar analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.