1X Canada or draw
87.2 %
Canada
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 19, 2026 · 00:00
Qatar
Model favorite Canada win 64.1 %
FavoriteCanada
Confidence score65.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Canada win | 64.12 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.06 % |
| Qatar win | 12.82 % |
Dominant scenario: 41.1-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
59.0 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 59.0 %
Over 2.5 41.0 %
62.5 % No BTTS
No 62.5 %
Yes 37.5 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Qatar
35.9 %
12 Either team wins
76.9 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Canada 54.3 % · Qatar 18.1 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Canada 83.3 % · Qatar 16.7 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Canada 44.5 % · Qatar 8.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Canada 36.9 % · Qatar 3.1 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 16.78 %
- 2-0 14.37 %
- 1-1 10.25 %
- 0-0 9.80 %
- 2-1 8.77 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (16.78%); next scenarios: 2-0 (14.37%), 1-1 (10.25%).
Elo context
Canada1812
Qatar1592
Elo gap of 220 points in favour of Canada (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Canada vs Qatar analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.