1X Canada or draw
45.7 %
Canada
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 4, 2026 · 19:00
Morocco
Model favorite Morocco win 54.4 %
FavoriteMorocco
Confidence score55.0 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Canada win | 18.29 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.37 % |
| Morocco win | 54.35 % |
Dominant scenario: 27.0-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
64.9 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 64.9 %
Over 2.5 35.1 %
62.3 % No BTTS
No 62.3 %
Yes 37.7 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Morocco
81.7 %
12 Either team wins
72.6 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Canada 24.4 % · Morocco 50.1 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Canada 25.2 % · Morocco 74.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Canada 12.2 % · Morocco 37.9 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Canada 5.0 % · Morocco 27.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 17.24 %
- 0-0 12.21 %
- 0-2 12.17 %
- 1-1 11.91 %
- 1-0 8.44 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (17.24%); next scenarios: 0-0 (12.21%), 0-2 (12.17%).
Elo context
Canada1814
Morocco1954
Elo gap of 139 points in favour of Morocco (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Canada vs Morocco analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.