1X Brazil or draw
73.8 %
Brazil
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 29, 2026 · 19:00
Japan
Model favorite Brazil win 48.5 %
FavoriteBrazil
Confidence score48.6 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Brazil win | 48.53 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.25 % |
| Japan win | 26.21 % |
Clear 22.3-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
50.8 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 50.8 %
Over 2.5 49.2 %
52.2 % BTTS
Yes 52.2 %
No 47.8 %
No clear goal trend: balanced markets.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Japan
51.5 %
12 Either team wins
74.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Brazil 34.0 % · Japan 20.9 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Brazil 64.9 % · Japan 35.1 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Brazil 26.9 % · Japan 13.8 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Brazil 25.0 % · Japan 9.9 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 12.01 %
- 1-0 11.14 %
- 2-1 9.39 %
- 2-0 8.70 %
- 0-1 7.68 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (12.01%); next scenarios: 1-0 (11.14%), 2-1 (9.39%).
Elo context
Brazil2022
Japan1929
Elo gap of 92 points in favour of Brazil (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Brazil vs Japan analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.