1X Bosnia and Herzegovina or draw
67.7 %
Bosnia and Herzegovina
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 24, 2026 · 21:00
Qatar
Model favorite Bosnia and Herzegovina win 43.6 %
FavoriteBosnia and Herzegovina
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Bosnia and Herzegovina win | 43.62 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.08 % |
| Qatar win | 32.31 % |
Tight 11.3-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
57.7 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 57.7 %
Under 2.5 42.3 %
60.0 % BTTS
Yes 60.0 %
No 40.0 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Qatar
56.4 %
12 Either team wins
75.9 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Bosnia and Herzegovina 25.4 % · Qatar 19.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Bosnia and Herzegovina 57.5 % · Qatar 42.5 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Bosnia and Herzegovina 20.4 % · Qatar 14.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina 22.4 % · Qatar 14.4 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 11.11 %
- 2-1 9.06 %
- 1-0 8.10 %
- 1-2 7.62 %
- 0-1 6.82 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (11.11%); next scenarios: 2-1 (9.06%), 1-0 (8.10%).
Elo context
Bosnia and Herzegovina1618
Qatar1569
Elo gap of 48 points in favour of Bosnia and Herzegovina (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.