1X Belgium or draw
69.3 %
Belgium
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 1, 2026 · 22:00
Senegal
Model favorite Belgium win 49.0 %
FavoriteBelgium
Confidence score48.6 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Belgium win | 49.01 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.32 % |
| Senegal win | 30.67 % |
Clear 18.3-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
75.5 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 75.5 %
Under 2.5 24.4 %
73.5 % BTTS
Yes 73.5 %
No 26.5 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Senegal
51.0 %
12 Either team wins
79.7 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Belgium 17.6 % · Senegal 10.9 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Belgium 61.5 % · Senegal 38.5 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Belgium 15.6 % · Senegal 9.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Belgium 29.3 % · Senegal 15.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-1 8.18 %
- 1-1 7.38 %
- 2-2 7.12 %
- 1-2 6.42 %
- 3-1 6.05 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-1 (8.18%); next scenarios: 1-1 (7.38%), 2-2 (7.12%).
Elo context
Belgium1911
Senegal1820
Elo gap of 91 points in favour of Belgium (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Belgium vs Senegal analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.