1X Belgium or draw
67.8 %
Belgium
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 21, 2026 · 21:00
Iran
Model favorite Belgium win 44.5 %
FavoriteBelgium
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Belgium win | 44.50 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.27 % |
| Iran win | 32.23 % |
Clear 12.3-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
61.6 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 61.6 %
Under 2.5 38.4 %
62.9 % BTTS
Yes 62.9 %
No 37.1 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Iran
55.5 %
12 Either team wins
76.7 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Belgium 23.6 % · Iran 17.7 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Belgium 58.0 % · Iran 42.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Belgium 19.4 % · Iran 13.5 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Belgium 23.6 % · Iran 14.8 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 10.43 %
- 2-1 9.04 %
- 1-2 7.54 %
- 1-0 7.22 %
- 2-2 6.53 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (10.43%); next scenarios: 2-1 (9.04%), 1-2 (7.54%).
Elo context
Belgium1904
Iran1849
Elo gap of 54 points in favour of Belgium (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Belgium vs Iran analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.