1X Belgium or draw
69.4 %
Belgium
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 21, 2026 · 21:00
Iran
Model favorite Belgium win 46.2 %
FavoriteBelgium
Confidence score48.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Belgium win | 46.17 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.25 % |
| Iran win | 30.58 % |
Clear 15.6-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
60.9 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 60.9 %
Under 2.5 39.1 %
62.1 % BTTS
Yes 62.1 %
No 37.9 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Iran
53.8 %
12 Either team wins
76.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Belgium 24.9 % · Iran 17.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Belgium 60.2 % · Iran 39.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Belgium 20.6 % · Iran 13.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Belgium 24.8 % · Iran 13.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 10.50 %
- 2-1 9.22 %
- 1-0 7.55 %
- 1-2 7.30 %
- 2-0 6.63 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (10.50%); next scenarios: 2-1 (9.22%), 1-0 (7.55%).
Elo context
Belgium1902
Iran1833
Elo gap of 69 points in favour of Belgium (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Belgium vs Iran analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.