1X Australia or draw
59.9 %
Australia
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 14, 2026 · 06:00
Turkey
Model favorite Turkey win 40.1 %
FavoriteTurkey
Confidence score40.2 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Australia win | 34.14 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.79 % |
| Turkey win | 40.07 % |
Tight 5.9-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
50.5 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 50.5 %
Under 2.5 49.5 %
54.6 % BTTS
Yes 54.6 %
No 45.4 %
No clear goal trend: balanced markets.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Turkey
65.9 %
12 Either team wins
74.2 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Australia 24.4 % · Turkey 27.7 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Australia 46.0 % · Turkey 54.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Australia 17.6 % · Turkey 21.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Australia 14.9 % · Turkey 18.9 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 12.24 %
- 0-1 9.54 %
- 1-0 8.67 %
- 1-2 8.64 %
- 2-1 7.85 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (12.24%); next scenarios: 0-1 (9.54%), 1-0 (8.67%).
Elo context
Australia1832
Turkey1856
Very small Elo gap: teams rated close to each other.
Match FAQ
How should I read the Australia vs Turkey analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.