1X Argentina or draw
93.1 %
Argentina
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 7, 2026 · 18:00
Egypt
Model favorite Argentina win 74.3 %
FavoriteArgentina
Confidence score77.9 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Argentina win | 74.35 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 18.73 % |
| Egypt win | 6.92 % |
Dominant scenario: 55.6-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
58.0 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 58.0 %
Over 2.5 42.0 %
70.9 % No BTTS
No 70.9 %
Yes 29.1 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Egypt
25.6 %
12 Either team wins
81.3 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Argentina 66.1 % · Egypt 14.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Argentina 91.5 % · Egypt 8.5 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Argentina 56.6 % · Egypt 4.8 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Argentina 47.5 % · Egypt 1.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 18.37 %
- 2-0 17.87 %
- 3-0 11.60 %
- 0-0 9.44 %
- 1-1 7.61 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (18.37%); next scenarios: 2-0 (17.87%), 3-0 (11.60%).
Elo context
Argentina2129
Egypt1802
Elo gap of 326 points in favour of Argentina (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Argentina vs Egypt analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.