1X Argentina or draw
97.4 %
Argentina
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 4, 2026 · 00:00
Cape Verde
Model favorite Argentina win 83.4 %
FavoriteArgentina
Confidence score92.5 %
StabilityStable
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Argentina win | 83.38 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 14.01 % |
| Cape Verde win | 2.61 % |
Dominant scenario: 69.4-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
57.9 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 57.9 %
Over 2.5 42.1 %
83.7 % No BTTS
No 83.7 %
Yes 16.3 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Cape Verde
16.6 %
12 Either team wins
86.0 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Argentina 81.5 % · Cape Verde 11.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Argentina 97.0 % · Cape Verde 3.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Argentina 72.2 % · Cape Verde 2.1 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Argentina 58.3 % · Cape Verde 0.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-0 21.94 %
- 1-0 20.30 %
- 3-0 15.82 %
- 0-0 9.39 %
- 4-0 8.55 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-0 (21.94%); next scenarios: 1-0 (20.30%), 3-0 (15.82%).
Elo context
Argentina2118
Cape Verde1655
Elo gap of 463 points in favour of Argentina (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Argentina vs Cape Verde analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.