1X Argentina or draw
88.7 %
Argentina
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 17, 2026 · 03:00
Algeria
Model favorite Argentina win 67.2 %
FavoriteArgentina
Confidence score72.4 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Argentina win | 67.19 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.47 % |
| Algeria win | 11.35 % |
Dominant scenario: 45.7-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
56.5 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 56.5 %
Over 2.5 43.5 %
62.5 % No BTTS
No 62.5 %
Yes 37.5 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Algeria
32.8 %
12 Either team wins
78.5 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Argentina 55.3 % · Algeria 16.1 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Argentina 85.5 % · Algeria 14.4 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Argentina 46.4 % · Algeria 7.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Argentina 40.4 % · Algeria 2.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 16.26 %
- 2-0 14.86 %
- 1-1 9.63 %
- 3-0 9.05 %
- 0-0 8.90 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (16.26%); next scenarios: 2-0 (14.86%), 1-1 (9.63%).
Elo context
Argentina2090
Algeria1839
Elo gap of 251 points in favour of Argentina (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Argentina vs Algeria analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.