Foresportia Elo
1590Liga MX rank : 6th
Toluca
Foresportia analyses Toluca using its match data and proprietary models: Elo level, recent form, probabilities, observed reliability and verifiable market signals.
1X2 entropy
1.46Lower = easier to readPoints volatility
0.80Standard deviation over 5 matchesRecent form
1.40Points per match over 5 matchesModel confidence
51.8%Average over 10 predictionsCurrent analysis: Toluca
The attack of Toluca is productive, scoring 10 goals across the last five recorded matches in Liga MX. They have conceded 6 goals over these matches. The team have taken 7 points from a possible 15 over these matches.
Liga MX · 2026 · 21 matches analyzed
View analyzed match details
| Date | Goals scored | Goals conceded | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 3 |
1. How Foresportia evaluates Toluca
Summary of indicators actually available in Foresportia data.
2. Next match
CF PachucaElo : 1565
TolucaElo : 1556
1X2 probabilities (Foresportia model)
CF Pachuca 32%Draw 27%Toluca 41%
3. Prediction reliability for Toluca
Data updated on 15 November 2026
Reliability trendCumulative monthly history
Insufficient sample| Cumulative monthly history | Profile | Reliability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | Risk | Insufficient sample | 4 |
| 2026-05 | Risk | Insufficient sample | 6 |
| 2026-07 | Risk | Insufficient sample | 8 |
| 2026-08 | Risk | 40.0% | 10 |
| 2026-09 | Risk | 46.2% | 13 |
| 2026-10 | Risk | 37.5% | 16 |
| 2026-11 | Risk | 38.9% | 18 |
| 2026-04 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-05 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-07 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-08 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2026-09 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2026-10 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 3 |
| 2026-11 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 3 |
| 2026-04 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-05 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-07 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-08 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2026-09 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2026-10 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2026-11 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2026-04 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-05 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-07 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-08 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-09 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-10 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-11 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
4. Predictive profile for Toluca
ContextObserved measureReading
Home performance1.64 pts/matchHigher observed return
Away performance1.20 pts/matchLower observed return
5. Statistical markers for Toluca
Team values from Foresportia sources, without a reconstructed league average.
History: 21 verified matches
6. Market signals for Toluca
MarketAverage probabilityReliabilityVolumeReading
Double chance 1X73.9%78.9%19Major, well-documented signal
Double chance 1273.5%68.2%22Confirmed signal
Both teams to score57.5%68.2%22Success above the average probability
Over 2.556.8%66.7%21Success above the average probability
Double chance X265.4%57.1%14Success below the average probability
7. Model dynamics & analysis
Foresportia Elo trendTracks the team’s relative level as matches are played.
Toluca
Average model confidenceShows how the model’s average certainty changes across matches.
Toluca
xG differential trendCompares expected goals created and conceded to track the balance of chances.
PositiveNegative
Model calibrationCompares published probabilities with the rates actually observed.
Observed ratePerfect
League-position trendTracks the team’s league position throughout the season.
Toluca
Goals scored / concededCompares goals scored and conceded using a five-match rolling average.
Goals scored / match (5)Goals conceded / match (5)
Points per matchTracks points earned per match using a five-match rolling average.
Toluca
8. Foresportia analysis
For Foresportia, Toluca mainly shows a more productive attacking profile. This page also tracks ranking, Elo evolution, goal trends and the market signals Foresportia finds most useful.
Toluca shows a stronger attacking profile, scoring 2.00 goals per match recently.
The next detected match is CF Pachuca vs Toluca on . The leading 1X2 read currently points to “Away win” around 41%.
Continue exploring
Upcoming matches, competition, other teams and verifiable history.
9. Toluca FAQ
What is the next match for Toluca on Foresportia?
This page shows Toluca's confirmed next match with the enriched prediction probabilities that are currently available.
How should you read Toluca's ranking and Elo?
This page includes dedicated charts for Toluca's ranking and Elo trends, with season separators to make the evolution easier to read.
What does the strongest picks block mean for Toluca?
It highlights the markets that performed best in the available history for Toluca, together with sample size, hit rate and average probability.
Toluca: AI analysis, predictions and Foresportia signals
For Foresportia, Toluca mainly shows a more productive attacking profile. This page also tracks ranking, Elo evolution, goal trends and the market signals Foresportia finds most useful.
Toluca shows a stronger attacking profile, scoring 2.00 goals per match recently.
The next detected match is CF Pachuca vs Toluca on . The leading 1X2 read currently points to “Away win” around 41%.