Foresportia Elo
1463Liga Portugal 2 rank : 7th
FC Penafiel
Foresportia analyses FC Penafiel using its match data and proprietary models: Elo level, recent form, probabilities, observed reliability and verifiable market signals.
1X2 entropy
1.56Lower = easier to readPoints volatility
1.36Standard deviation over 5 matchesRecent form
1.40Points per match over 5 matchesModel confidence
55.8%Average over 10 predictions1. How Foresportia evaluates FC Penafiel
Summary of indicators actually available in Foresportia data.
2. Next match
FC Felgueiras 1932Elo : 1492
FC PenafielElo : 1516
1X2 probabilities (Foresportia model)
FC Felgueiras 1932 36%Draw 31%FC Penafiel 33%
3. Prediction reliability for FC Penafiel
Data updated on 06 September 2026
Reliability trendCumulative monthly history
Insufficient sample| Cumulative monthly history | Profile | Reliability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | Risk | Insufficient sample | 3 |
| 2024-09 | Risk | Insufficient sample | 6 |
| 2024-10 | Risk | Insufficient sample | 9 |
| 2024-11 | Risk | 36.4% | 11 |
| 2024-12 | Risk | 37.5% | 16 |
| 2025-01 | Risk | 31.6% | 19 |
| 2025-02 | Risk | 43.5% | 23 |
| 2025-03 | Risk | 48.1% | 27 |
| 2025-04 | Risk | 54.8% | 31 |
| 2025-05 | Risk | 52.9% | 34 |
| 2025-08 | Risk | 54.1% | 37 |
| 2025-09 | Risk | 51.3% | 39 |
| 2025-10 | Risk | 47.6% | 42 |
| 2025-11 | Risk | 47.7% | 44 |
| 2025-12 | Risk | 46.8% | 47 |
| 2026-01 | Risk | 49.0% | 51 |
| 2026-02 | Risk | 46.3% | 54 |
| 2026-03 | Risk | 46.6% | 58 |
| 2026-04 | Risk | 45.2% | 62 |
| 2026-05 | Risk | 44.6% | 65 |
| 2026-08 | Risk | 42.0% | 69 |
| 2024-08 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-09 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-10 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-11 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-12 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-01 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-02 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-03 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-04 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-05 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-08 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-09 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-10 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-11 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 4 |
| 2025-12 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 4 |
| 2026-01 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 4 |
| 2026-02 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 4 |
| 2026-03 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 4 |
| 2026-04 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 4 |
| 2026-05 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 4 |
| 2026-08 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 4 |
| 2024-08 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-09 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-10 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-11 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-12 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-01 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-02 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-03 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-04 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-05 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-08 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-09 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-10 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-11 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-12 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-01 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-02 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-03 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-04 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-05 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-08 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-08 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-09 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-10 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-11 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-12 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-01 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-02 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-03 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-04 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-05 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-08 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-09 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-10 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-11 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2025-12 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-01 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-02 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-03 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-04 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-05 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2026-08 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
4. Predictive profile for FC Penafiel
ContextObserved measureReading
Home performance1.47 pts/matchHigher observed return
Away performance1.08 pts/matchLower observed return
5. Statistical markers for FC Penafiel
Team values from Foresportia sources, without a reconstructed league average.
History: 73 verified matches
6. Market signals for FC Penafiel
MarketAverage probabilityReliabilityVolumeReading
Double chance 1269.7%75.0%20Major, well-documented signal
Double chance 1X66.2%75.0%20Major, well-documented signal
Under 2.561.2%57.9%19Recurring signal
Both teams to score53.2%55.6%9Promising signal, limited sample
7. Model dynamics & analysis
Foresportia Elo trendTracks the team’s relative level as matches are played.
FC Penafiel
Average model confidenceShows how the model’s average certainty changes across matches.
FC Penafiel
xG differential trendCompares expected goals created and conceded to track the balance of chances.
PositiveNegative
Model calibrationCompares published probabilities with the rates actually observed.
Observed ratePerfect
League-position trendTracks the team’s league position throughout the season.
FC Penafiel
Goals scored / concededCompares goals scored and conceded using a five-match rolling average.
Goals scored / match (5)Goals conceded / match (5)
Points per matchTracks points earned per match using a five-match rolling average.
FC Penafiel
8. Foresportia analysis
For Foresportia, FC Penafiel still requires a more cautious read tied to recent form and match context. This page also tracks ranking, Elo evolution, goal trends and the market signals Foresportia finds most useful.
FC Penafiel still needs to be read through recent form, Elo and its advanced production indicators.
The next detected match is FC Felgueiras 1932 vs FC Penafiel on . The leading 1X2 read currently points to “Home win” around 36%.
Continue exploring
Upcoming matches, competition, other teams and verifiable history.
9. FC Penafiel FAQ
What is the next match for FC Penafiel on Foresportia?
This page shows FC Penafiel's confirmed next match with the enriched prediction probabilities that are currently available.
How should you read FC Penafiel's ranking and Elo?
This page includes dedicated charts for FC Penafiel's ranking and Elo trends, with season separators to make the evolution easier to read.
What does the strongest picks block mean for FC Penafiel?
It highlights the markets that performed best in the available history for FC Penafiel, together with sample size, hit rate and average probability.
FC Penafiel: AI analysis, predictions and Foresportia signals
For Foresportia, FC Penafiel still requires a more cautious read tied to recent form and match context. This page also tracks ranking, Elo evolution, goal trends and the market signals Foresportia finds most useful.
FC Penafiel still needs to be read through recent form, Elo and its advanced production indicators.
The next detected match is FC Felgueiras 1932 vs FC Penafiel on . The leading 1X2 read currently points to “Home win” around 36%.