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Chelsea

EnglandPremier League2026-2027

Foresportia analyses Chelsea using its match data and proprietary models: Elo level, recent form, probabilities, observed reliability and verifiable market signals.

Foresportia Elo
1602Premier League rank : 4th
1X2 entropy
1.54Lower = easier to read
Points volatility
1.47Standard deviation over 5 matches
Recent form
1.80Points per match over 5 matches
Model confidence
51.4%Average over 10 predictions

Current analysis: Chelsea

Chelsea have a solid defensive record, conceding 4 goals across the last five recorded matches in Premier League. Their attack is productive, scoring 9 goals over these matches. The team have taken 9 points from a possible 15 over these matches. More matches this season are needed to confirm this trend.

Premier League · 2026-2027 · 9 matches analyzed

View analyzed match details
Matches analyzed (up to 5)
DateGoals scoredGoals concededPoints
513
203
020
203
010

1. How Foresportia evaluates Chelsea

Summary of indicators actually available in Foresportia data.

1602Foresportia EloPremier League rank : 4th
1.541X2 entropyLower = easier to read
1.47Points volatilityStandard deviation over 5 matches
1.80Recent formpoints / match
51.4%Model confidenceAverage over 10 predictions

2. Next match

Premier League

Chelsea FCElo : 1538
VS
Leeds UnitedElo : 1559
1X2 probabilities (Foresportia model)
52%28%20%
Chelsea FC 52%Draw 28%Leeds United 20%
Main signalHome win · 52%
Model confidence54.9%
StabilityRisk
View match details →

3. Prediction reliability for Chelsea

Data updated on 14 November 2026

Reliability trendCumulative monthly history
54.5%
Cumulative monthly historyProfileReliabilityVolume
2024-08RiskInsufficient sample1
2024-09RiskInsufficient sample5
2024-10RiskInsufficient sample8
2024-11Risk45.5%11
2024-12Risk43.8%16
2025-01Risk38.9%18
2025-02Risk45.0%20
2025-03Risk45.0%20
2025-04Risk48.0%25
2025-05Risk51.7%29
2025-08Risk51.6%31
2025-09Risk47.1%34
2025-10Risk45.9%37
2025-11Risk44.7%38
2025-12Risk41.5%41
2026-01Risk43.2%44
2026-02Risk44.4%45
2026-03Risk44.9%49
2026-04Risk44.2%52
2026-05Risk42.9%56
2026-08Risk44.8%58
2026-09Risk45.0%60
2026-10Risk46.9%64
2026-11Risk46.2%65
2024-08Correct and aboveInsufficient sample1
2024-09Correct and aboveInsufficient sample1
2024-10Correct and aboveInsufficient sample1
2024-11Correct and aboveInsufficient sample1
2024-12Correct and aboveInsufficient sample3
2025-01Correct and aboveInsufficient sample5
2025-02Correct and aboveInsufficient sample7
2025-03Correct and aboveInsufficient sample9
2025-04Correct and aboveInsufficient sample9
2025-05Correct and aboveInsufficient sample9
2025-08Correct and above100.0%10
2025-09Correct and above100.0%10
2025-10Correct and above100.0%10
2025-11Correct and above100.0%13
2025-12Correct and above87.5%16
2026-01Correct and above83.3%18
2026-02Correct and above75.0%20
2026-03Correct and above75.0%20
2026-04Correct and above75.0%20
2026-05Correct and above75.0%20
2026-08Correct and above75.0%20
2026-09Correct and above75.0%20
2026-10Correct and above75.0%20
2026-11Correct and above75.0%20
2024-08Stable and aboveInsufficient sample0
2024-09Stable and aboveInsufficient sample0
2024-10Stable and aboveInsufficient sample0
2024-11Stable and aboveInsufficient sample0
2024-12Stable and aboveInsufficient sample1
2025-01Stable and aboveInsufficient sample1
2025-02Stable and aboveInsufficient sample2
2025-03Stable and aboveInsufficient sample2
2025-04Stable and aboveInsufficient sample2
2025-05Stable and aboveInsufficient sample2
2025-08Stable and aboveInsufficient sample3
2025-09Stable and aboveInsufficient sample3
2025-10Stable and aboveInsufficient sample3
2025-11Stable and aboveInsufficient sample5
2025-12Stable and aboveInsufficient sample8
2026-01Stable and aboveInsufficient sample9
2026-02Stable and above54.5%11
2026-03Stable and above54.5%11
2026-04Stable and above54.5%11
2026-05Stable and above54.5%11
2026-08Stable and above54.5%11
2026-09Stable and above54.5%11
2026-10Stable and above54.5%11
2026-11Stable and above54.5%11
2024-08Ultra stableInsufficient sample0
2024-09Ultra stableInsufficient sample0
2024-10Ultra stableInsufficient sample0
2024-11Ultra stableInsufficient sample0
2024-12Ultra stableInsufficient sample1
2025-01Ultra stableInsufficient sample1
2025-02Ultra stableInsufficient sample1
2025-03Ultra stableInsufficient sample1
2025-04Ultra stableInsufficient sample1
2025-05Ultra stableInsufficient sample1
2025-08Ultra stableInsufficient sample2
2025-09Ultra stableInsufficient sample2
2025-10Ultra stableInsufficient sample2
2025-11Ultra stableInsufficient sample4
2025-12Ultra stableInsufficient sample5
2026-01Ultra stableInsufficient sample6
2026-02Ultra stableInsufficient sample6
2026-03Ultra stableInsufficient sample6
2026-04Ultra stableInsufficient sample6
2026-05Ultra stableInsufficient sample6
2026-08Ultra stableInsufficient sample6
2026-09Ultra stableInsufficient sample6
2026-10Ultra stableInsufficient sample6
2026-11Ultra stableInsufficient sample6

4. Predictive profile for Chelsea

ContextObserved measureReading
Home performance1.81 pts/matchHigher observed return
Away performance1.40 pts/matchLower observed return

5. Statistical markers for Chelsea

Team values from Foresportia sources, without a reconstructed league average.

Expected goals created at home1.16
Expected goals conceded at home0.92
Expected goals created away1.18
Expected goals conceded away0.88
Goals scored / match (5)1.80
Goals conceded / match (5)0.80

History: 85 verified matches

6. Market signals for Chelsea

MarketAverage probabilityReliabilityVolumeReading
Double chance 1272.9%85.2%27Major, well-documented signal
Double chance 1X69.2%64.0%25Recurring signal
Over 2.555.5%62.5%16Recurring signal

7. Model dynamics & analysis

Foresportia Elo trendTracks the team’s relative level as matches are played.
Chelsea
Average model confidenceShows how the model’s average certainty changes across matches.
Chelsea
xG differential trendCompares expected goals created and conceded to track the balance of chances.
PositiveNegative
Model calibrationCompares published probabilities with the rates actually observed.
Observed ratePerfect

8. Foresportia analysis

For Foresportia, Chelsea mainly relies on a more reliable defensive base. This page also tracks ranking, Elo evolution, goal trends and the market signals Foresportia finds most useful.

Chelsea currently relies on a more reliable defensive base, conceding only 0.80 goals per match recently.

The next detected match is Chelsea FC vs Leeds United on . The leading 1X2 read currently points to “Home win” around 52%.

AI verdictCautious predictive reliability

Stable and above: 54.5% success across 11 verified 1X2 predictions.

Verify the complete history →

Continue exploring

Upcoming matches, competition, other teams and verifiable history.

View upcoming matchesBrowse upcoming fixtures and AI analysis.→Explore Premier LeagueLeague calendar, standings and predictions.→Explore teamsBrowse analysis and profiles for other clubs.→Verify our performanceReview Foresportia’s verifiable prediction history.→

9. Chelsea FAQ

What is the next match for Chelsea on Foresportia?

This page shows Chelsea's confirmed next match with the enriched prediction probabilities that are currently available.

How should you read Chelsea's ranking and Elo?

This page includes dedicated charts for Chelsea's ranking and Elo trends, with season separators to make the evolution easier to read.

What does the strongest picks block mean for Chelsea?

It highlights the markets that performed best in the available history for Chelsea, together with sample size, hit rate and average probability.

Chelsea: AI analysis, predictions and Foresportia signals

For Foresportia, Chelsea mainly relies on a more reliable defensive base. This page also tracks ranking, Elo evolution, goal trends and the market signals Foresportia finds most useful.

Chelsea currently relies on a more reliable defensive base, conceding only 0.80 goals per match recently.

The next detected match is Chelsea FC vs Leeds United on . The leading 1X2 read currently points to “Home win” around 52%.