Chilean Primera División · Matchday 22 · Season 2026 · ScheduledEstadio El Teniente, Rancagua

Prediction for O'Higgins vs Union La Calera

O'HigginsLLDLW
1X2 PREDICTION BALANCE
40.9%O'Higgins
30.8%Draw
28.3%Union La Calera
Union La CaleraLDLLL
VERDICTO'Higgins slight favourite

Foresportia's analysis estimates that O'Higgins has the advantage based on the 1X2 probabilities. The models give O'Higgins a slight edge, but the gap is not large enough to form a strong signal. The stability level still calls for a cautious reading. The more protective signal remains double chance 1X at 71.7%, rather than the straight 1X2 pick. Confidence reflects how clear the signal is for this match; stability reflects its historical robustness.

1X2 STABILITYRisk The stability badge measures the historical robustness of the 1X2 signal.Model confidence 41.6%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance 1X · 71.7%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.

Why the model sees it this way

Relative strengthAdvantage O'Higgins
Recent formAdvantage O'Higgins
Goal profileRather low-scoring
Signal stabilityLow
Model confidenceLow

Probabilities & verdict

O'Higgins40.9%
Draw30.8%
Union La Calera28.3%

Main pickO'Higgins

1X2 STABILITYRisk

Model confidence41.6%

1X2 alternatives

1X2 alternatives
MarketPickProbabilityReading
Double chance1X71.7%Most robust signal
Draw no betO'Higgins59.1%Interesting
Total goalsUnder 2.550.6%Neutral
Both teams to scoreYes54%Neutral
Total goalsUnder 3.575.9%Solid
View all markets →

How the match could unfold

Expected goals (xG)1.38O'Higgins

Expected goals (xG)1.11Union La Calera

Under 2.5 probability50.6%

BTTS No probability46%

Top 5 likely scores
1 - 111.7%2 - 111.3%0 - 011.2%1 - 010.6%1 - 28.8%

Advanced scenarios

O'HigginsUnion La Calera
32.2%
Clean sheet
25%
21%
Win to nil
13.9%
17.9%
Win by 2 goals or more
9.8%
Learn more about our scenarios →

Team comparison

O'HigginsUnion La Calera
12thCurrent position16th
1465Elo1383
LLDLWForm (last 5)LDLLL
1.4Goals scored / match (5)0.4
2.0Goals conceded / match (5)1.8
0.0Clean sheets (5)20.0
View the detailed comparison ›

Prediction reliability

Risk profile

This match carries more uncertainty than average. Our models therefore reduce confidence slightly.

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCERisk profile
42.5%

42.5% correct predictions
over 40 verified matches

Learn more about our methodology →
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE50%32.5%15%081624324042.5%Number of matches

What the data says about O'Higgins vs Union La Calera

This Chilean Primera División fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.

Before kick-off, O'Higgins sits 12th and Union La Calera 16th in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1465 for O'Higgins and 1383 for Union La Calera.

Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 26.7% for O'Higgins and 6.7% for Union La Calera. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.

According to probabilities calculated by Foresportia, the 1X2 projection gives O'Higgins 40.9%, the draw 30.8% and Union La Calera 28.3%. The expected-goals model projects 1.38 xG against 1.11, for a combined 2.48. The most likely score according to Foresportia is 1–1 at 11.7%.