Liga MX · Scheduled

First AI projection for Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca

First AI projection for this Liga MX fixture. This early estimate may change closer to kick-off.

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Guadalajara Chivas

Standing—

Elo rating1500

Form index33.3%

Last 5 matches
LDWLD

Expected goals2.55

ScheduledVSJuly 19, 2026
03:00

Toluca

Standing—

Elo rating1462

Form index20%

Last 5 matches
LLWLL

Expected goals0.77

Match context to watch
Draw closeLine-ups to watchBusy schedule

Quick read

  • Main predictionOpen match; slight edge for Guadalajara Chivas at 36.3%, so caution is advised.
  • Confidence levelRisk
  • Cautious marketDouble chance 1X · 67.2%
  • Likely score2 - 0 (11.76%)
  • BTTSYes · 55.7%
  • Over/Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 50.3%

First AI projection

This early estimate is published ahead of the match. Probabilities may change with recent form, injuries, line-ups, scheduling and newly available data.

Guadalajara Chivas36.3%
Draw31%
Toluca32.8%

Main pickGuadalajara Chivas36.3%

Confidence23.6%

StabilityRisk

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Expected goals and trends

Guadalajara Chivas2.55
Expected total3.32
Toluca0.77
49.7%Over 2.5

Over 49.7% Under 50.3%

55.7%BTTS

Yes 55.7% No 44.3%

Double chance

Available markets

1X67.2%
X263.7%
1269%

Top 5 likely scores

  1. Likely score 2 - 0 — 11.8%
  2. Likely score 3 - 0 — 10%
  3. Likely score 1 - 0 — 9.2%
  4. Likely score 2 - 1 — 9.1%
  5. Likely score 3 - 1 — 7.7%

Advanced scenarios

Clean sheet

Guadalajara Chivas 46.3%Toluca 7.8%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas 52.6%Toluca 47.4%

Win to nil

Guadalajara Chivas 42.7%Toluca 4.2%

Win by 2+ goals

Guadalajara Chivas 54.1%Toluca 2.5%

Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca early projection FAQ

What does the first AI projection say about Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?

The early estimate gives Guadalajara Chivas a slight edge at 36.3%. This probability may change before the match.

Why can this estimate change?

Recent form, injuries, line-ups, fixture congestion and newly available data will be included in later updates.

Is an early likely score available?

The first calculated scenario is 2 - 0 (11.76%), but this is an early estimate that may change.

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More football tools and analysis

Check today's matches and updated results, compare standings and team form, then explore more fixtures and AI analysis from this league.

Liga MX

What the data says about Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca

This Liga MX fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.

Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 33.3% for Guadalajara Chivas and 20% for Toluca. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.

The 1X2 projection gives Guadalajara Chivas 36.3%, the draw 31% and Toluca 32.8%. The expected-goals model projects 2.55 xG against 0.77, for a combined 3.32.