Relative strengthAdvantage FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar: final result and verified AI prediction
Atletico GrauWWDLL25.4%Atletico Grau
31.8%Draw
42.9%FBC Melgar
FBC MelgarDWLDWVERDICTIncorrect
The Foresportia prediction shown on this page was published before the match and is compared with the final result. Confidence reflects how clear the signal is for this match; stability reflects its historical robustness.
1X2 STABILITYRisk The stability badge measures the historical robustness of the 1X2 signal.Model confidence 37%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance X2 · 74.6%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.
Prediction review
Post-match · Confirmed result1 - 0
Published probability42.9%
Pick resultIncorrect
Final-score rank in pre-match top 5Not in the published pre-match top 5
Verified pre-match markets
BTTS Yes53.5%Incorrect
Under 2.5 goals52.4%Correct
Double chance X274.6%Incorrect
Why the model sees it this way
Recent formRather balanced
Goal profileRather low-scoring
Signal stabilityLow
Model confidenceLow
Published pre-match projection
Atletico Grau25.4%Draw31.8%
FBC Melgar42.9%Published pre-match predictionFBC Melgar
1X2 STABILITYRisk
Model confidence37%
Verified pre-match markets
| Market | Pick | Probability | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | X2 | 74.6% | Most robust signal |
| Draw no bet | FBC Melgar | 62.8% | Interesting |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | Neutral |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% | Neutral |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 78.5% | Solid |
What the model projected
Pre-match projected goals0.82Atletico Grau
Total xG2.11
Pre-match projected goals1.29FBC Melgar
Under 2.5 probability52.4%
BTTS No probability46.5%
Pre-match top 5 likely scores
1 - 112.6%1 - 212%0 - 011.9%0 - 111.3%2 - 18.4%
Advanced scenarios
Atletico GrauFBC Melgar24.3%
Clean sheet34.2%
7.8%
Win by 2 goals or more18.6%
Pre-match comparison
Atletico GrauFBC Melgar13thCurrent position3rd
1497Elo1605
WWDLLForm (last 5)DWLDW
0.8Goals scored / match (5)1.6
0.8Goals conceded / match (5)1.2
40.0Clean sheets (5)40.0
Prediction reliability
This match carries more uncertainty than average. Our models therefore reduce confidence slightly.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCERisk profile
29.2%
29.2% correct predictions
over 48 verified matches
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE
Quick FAQ
What is the prediction for Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar?
The model gives FBC Melgar a slight edge at 42.9%. Caution is still required.
What is the likely score?
The model's first score scenario is 1 - 1 (12.58%). An exact score remains one scenario among several.
Is BTTS likely?
The model estimates BTTS Yes at 53.5% and BTTS No at 46.5%.
Which market is the most cautious according to the model?
Double chance X2 stands at 74.6%, without being certain.
Explore more on Foresportia
Our commitment
◇ Predictions archived before kick-off
◇ No invented data
What the data says about Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar
This Peruvian Liga 1 fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.
Before kick-off, Atletico Grau sits 13th and FBC Melgar 3rd in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1497 for Atletico Grau and 1605 for FBC Melgar.
Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 46.7% for Atletico Grau and 53.3% for FBC Melgar. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.
Before the match, Foresportia's analysis estimated that the 1X2 probabilities gave Atletico Grau 25.4%, the draw 31.8% and FBC Melgar 42.9%. Before the match, the model projected 0.82 xG against 1.29, for a combined 2.11. Before the match, the most likely score according to Foresportia was 1–1 at 12.6%.