Relative strengthBalanced
Prediction for Alianza Lima vs Universitario
Alianza LimaLDWDW36.6%Alianza Lima
33.4%Draw
30.1%Universitario
UniversitarioDWWWDVERDICTVery balanced match
Foresportia's analysis estimates that Alianza Lima has the advantage based on the 1X2 probabilities. The 1X2 probabilities are very close and do not identify a clear favourite. The stability level still calls for a cautious reading. The more protective signal remains double chance 1X at 70%, rather than the straight 1X2 pick. Confidence reflects how clear the signal is for this match; stability reflects its historical robustness.
1X2 STABILITYRisk The stability badge measures the historical robustness of the 1X2 signal.Model confidence 37.1%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance 1X · 70%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.
Why the model sees it this way
Recent formAdvantage Universitario
Goal profileRather low-scoring
Signal stabilityLow
Model confidenceLow
Probabilities & verdict
Alianza Lima36.6%Draw33.4%
Universitario30.1%Main pickAlianza Lima
1X2 STABILITYRisk
Model confidence37.1%
1X2 alternatives
| Market | Pick | Probability | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70% | Most robust signal |
| Draw no bet | Alianza Lima | 54.9% | Neutral |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 56.1% | Interesting |
| Both teams to score | No | 50% | Neutral |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 80.4% | Solid |
How the match could unfold
Expected goals (xG)1.20Alianza Lima
Total xG2.26
Expected goals (xG)1.06Universitario
Under 2.5 probability56.1%
BTTS No probability50%
Top 5 likely scores
0 - 013.8%1 - 112.2%1 - 011.3%2 - 110.4%0 - 19.9%
Advanced scenarios
Alianza LimaUniversitario33.9%
Clean sheet29.9%
20.1%
Win to nil16.1%
14.2%
Win by 2 goals or more10.2%
Team comparison
Alianza LimaUniversitario1stCurrent position2nd
1658Elo1643
LDWDWForm (last 5)DWWWD
1.2Goals scored / match (5)2.6
0.8Goals conceded / match (5)1.4
20.0Clean sheets (5)20.0
Prediction reliability
This match carries more uncertainty than average. Our models therefore reduce confidence slightly.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCERisk profile
29.2%
29.2% correct predictions
over 48 verified matches
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE
Quick FAQ
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs Universitario?
The Foresportia model sees a very balanced match. Caution is still required.
What is the likely score?
The model's first score scenario is 0 - 0 (13.82%). An exact score remains one scenario among several.
Is BTTS likely?
The model estimates BTTS Yes at 50% and BTTS No at 50%.
Which market is the most cautious according to the model?
Double chance 1X stands at 70%, without being certain.
Explore more on Foresportia
Our commitment
◇ Predictions archived before kick-off
◇ No invented data
What the data says about Alianza Lima vs Universitario
This Peruvian Liga 1 fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.
Before kick-off, Alianza Lima sits 1st and Universitario 2nd in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1658 for Alianza Lima and 1643 for Universitario.
Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 53.3% for Alianza Lima and 73.3% for Universitario. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.
According to probabilities calculated by Foresportia, the 1X2 projection gives Alianza Lima 36.6%, the draw 33.4% and Universitario 30.1%. The expected-goals model projects 1.20 xG against 1.06, for a combined 2.26. The most likely score according to Foresportia is 0–0 at 13.8%.