Relative strengthBalanced
Prediction for Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin
Raków CzęstochowaLLLLL50.6%Raków Częstochowa
26.4%Draw
23%Motor Lublin
Motor LublinLLDWLVERDICTRaków Częstochowa slight favourite
Foresportia's analysis estimates that Raków Częstochowa has the advantage based on the 1X2 probabilities. The models give Raków Częstochowa a slight edge, but the gap is not large enough to form a strong signal. The stability level still calls for a cautious reading. The more protective signal remains double chance 1X at 77%, rather than the straight 1X2 pick. Confidence reflects how clear the signal is for this match; stability reflects its historical robustness.
1X2 STABILITYRisk The stability badge measures the historical robustness of the 1X2 signal.Model confidence 47.8%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance 1X · 77%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.
Why the model sees it this way
Recent formAdvantage Motor Lublin
Goal profileIntermediate goal profile
Signal stabilityLow
Model confidenceModerate
Probabilities & verdict
Raków Częstochowa50.6%Draw26.4%
Motor Lublin23%Main pickRaków Częstochowa
1X2 STABILITYRisk
Model confidence47.8%
1X2 alternatives
| Market | Pick | Probability | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77% | Most robust signal |
| Draw no bet | Raków Częstochowa | 68.8% | Solid |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | Interesting |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | Interesting |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.9% | Solid |
How the match could unfold
Expected goals (xG)1.76Raków Częstochowa
Total xG2.87
Expected goals (xG)1.12Motor Lublin
Under 2.5 probability41.9%
BTTS No probability41.2%
Top 5 likely scores
2 - 112.1%1 - 110.1%1 - 09.5%0 - 07.8%1 - 27.4%
Advanced scenarios
Raków CzęstochowaMotor Lublin31.6%
Clean sheet17.4%
23.8%
Win to nil9.7%
26.7%
Win by 2 goals or more7.7%
Team comparison
Raków CzęstochowaMotor Lublin18thCurrent position15th
1470Elo1447
LLLLLForm (last 5)LLDWL
1.0Goals scored / match (5)1.0
2.4Goals conceded / match (5)1.8
0.0Clean sheets (5)20.0
Prediction reliability
This match carries more uncertainty than average. Our models therefore reduce confidence slightly.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCERisk profile
49.1%
49.1% correct predictions
over 114 verified matches
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE
Quick FAQ
What is the prediction for Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin?
The Foresportia model gives Raków Częstochowa a slight edge at 50.6%. Caution is still required.
What is the likely score?
The model's first score scenario is 2 - 1 (12.12%). An exact score remains one scenario among several.
Is BTTS likely?
The model estimates BTTS Yes at 58.8% and BTTS No at 41.2%.
Which market is the most cautious according to the model?
Double chance 1X stands at 77%, without being certain.
Explore more on Foresportia
Our commitment
◇ Predictions archived before kick-off
◇ No invented data
What the data says about Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin
This Ekstraklasa fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.
Before kick-off, Raków Częstochowa sits 18th and Motor Lublin 15th in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1470 for Raków Częstochowa and 1447 for Motor Lublin.
Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 0% for Raków Częstochowa and 26.7% for Motor Lublin. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.
According to probabilities calculated by Foresportia, the 1X2 projection gives Raków Częstochowa 50.6%, the draw 26.4% and Motor Lublin 23%. The expected-goals model projects 1.76 xG against 1.12, for a combined 2.87. The most likely score according to Foresportia is 2–1 at 12.1%.