Relative strengthSlight edge for PSV
Prediction for PSV vs FK Shakhtar Donetsk
PSVLLLWD52.9%PSV
26.1%Draw
21%FK Shakhtar Donetsk
FK Shakhtar DonetskLWLLWVERDICTPSV slight favourite
Foresportia's analysis estimates that PSV has the advantage based on the 1X2 probabilities. The models give PSV a slight edge, but the gap is not large enough to form a strong signal. The stability level still calls for a cautious reading. The more protective signal remains double chance 1X at 79%, rather than the straight 1X2 pick. Confidence reflects how clear the signal is for this match; stability reflects its historical robustness.
1X2 STABILITYRisk The stability badge measures the historical robustness of the 1X2 signal.Model confidence 49.8%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance 1X · 79%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.
Why the model sees it this way
Recent formSlight edge for FK Shakhtar Donetsk
Goal profileIntermediate goal profile
Signal stabilityLow
Model confidenceModerate
Probabilities & verdict
PSV52.9%Draw26.1%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk21%Main pickPSV
1X2 STABILITYRisk
Model confidence49.8%
1X2 alternatives
| Market | Pick | Probability | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79% | Most robust signal |
| Draw no bet | PSV | 71.6% | Solid |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 61% | Interesting |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | Interesting |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.9% | Solid |
How the match could unfold
Expected goals (xG)1.86PSV
Total xG2.86
Expected goals (xG)1.00FK Shakhtar Donetsk
Under 2.5 probability39%
BTTS No probability45%
Top 5 likely scores
2 - 113.3%1 - 09.9%0 - 08%3 - 07.8%1 - 17.5%
Advanced scenarios
PSVFK Shakhtar Donetsk36.4%
Clean sheet16.5%
28.4%
Win to nil8.5%
31.5%
Win by 2 goals or more6.2%
Team comparison
PSVFK Shakhtar Donetsk1499Elo1458
1.6Goals scored / match (5)1.6
LLLWDForm (last 5)LWLLW
2.0Goals conceded / match (5)2.4
0.0Clean sheets (5)20.0
Prediction reliability
This match carries more uncertainty than average. Our models therefore reduce confidence slightly.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCERisk profile
50.2%
50.2% correct predictions
over 402 verified matches
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE
Quick FAQ
What is the prediction for PSV vs FK Shakhtar Donetsk?
The Foresportia model gives PSV a slight edge at 52.9%. Caution is still required.
What is the likely score?
The model's first score scenario is 2 - 1 (13.27%). An exact score remains one scenario among several.
Is BTTS likely?
The model estimates BTTS Yes at 55% and BTTS No at 45%.
Which market is the most cautious according to the model?
Double chance 1X stands at 79%, without being certain.
Explore more on Foresportia
Our commitment
◇ Predictions archived before kick-off
◇ No invented data
What the data says about PSV vs FK Shakhtar Donetsk
This Champions League fixture brings a high level of difficulty, making every gap in form or efficiency more significant.
Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 26.7% for PSV and 40% for FK Shakhtar Donetsk. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.
According to probabilities calculated by Foresportia, the 1X2 projection gives PSV 52.9%, the draw 26.1% and FK Shakhtar Donetsk 21%. The expected-goals model projects 1.86 xG against 1.00, for a combined 2.86. The most likely score according to Foresportia is 2–1 at 13.3%.