Probabilities

Market probabilities, probable scores, confidence, and entropy. The core input to build, calibrate, or compare a model.

Fields

Field	Type	Description
`one_x_two`	`object`	home, draw, and away probabilities in 0..1.
`btts`	`object`	Both teams to score: yes and no.
`over_under_2_5`	`object`	over and under 2.5 goals.
`double_chance`	`object`	home_or_draw, away_or_draw, home_or_away.
`draw_no_bet`	`object`	home and away, draw excluded.
`probable_scores`	`array`	Candidate scorelines with home, away, and probability.
`confidence`	`number`	Confidence indicator for the published prediction.
`entropy_bits`	`number`	Entropy of the 1X2 distribution, in bits.

Example

Real values, taken from the same published payload the API returns (GET /v1/matches/{match_id}):

{
  "probabilities": {
    "one_x_two": {
      "home": 0.58,
      "draw": 0.25,
      "away": 0.17
    },
    "btts": {
      "yes": 0.49,
      "no": 0.51
    },
    "over_under_2_5": {
      "over": 0.56,
      "under": 0.44
    },
    "double_chance": {
      "home_or_draw": 0.83,
      "away_or_draw": 0.42,
      "home_or_away": 0.75
    },
    "draw_no_bet": {
      "home": 0.773333,
      "away": 0.226667
    },
    "probable_scores": [
      {
        "home": 2,
        "away": 0,
        "probability": 0.13
      },
      {
        "home": 1,
        "away": 0,
        "probability": 0.12
      }
    ],
    "confidence": 0.72,
    "entropy_bits": 1.39
  }
}

How to read it. Home is the model-preferred outcome. Entropy is measured in bits against a 1.585 maximum for three outcomes: the lower it is, the more concentrated the distribution. Probabilities sum to 1 within each market.

Returned by GET /v1/matches/{match_id} and POST /v1/matches/bulk. Optional values can be missing — see Data quality.

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Probabilities

Fields

Example

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